10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
T10Y3MLeading IndicatorBroad Indicator
Latest Value
0.7%
Date: 2026-07-17
Data Count
11137recordsData from FRED source
Basic Info
Country: US
Frequency: Daily
Source: FRED
Trend Chart (Line)
Historical Trend Data
| Date | Value (%) | MoM (Change) | YoY (Change) | 3-Month MA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 0.7 | -4.11% | +22.81% | 0.72 |
| 2026-07-16 | 0.73 | +1.39% | +43.14% | 0.73 |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.72 | -2.70% | +30.91% | 0.73 |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.74 | +1.37% | +32.14% | 0.73 |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.73 | +2.82% | +30.36% | 0.72 |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.71 | 0.00% | +9.23% | 0.7 |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.71 | +2.90% | +7.58% | 0.7 |
| 2026-07-08 | 0.69 | 0.00% | +9.52% | 0.66 |
| 2026-07-07 | 0.69 | +13.11% | +4.55% | 0.66 |
| 2026-07-06 | 0.61 | -8.96% | -4.69% | 0.64 |
About Indicator
Explanation
What is the 10-Year to 3-Month Treasury Spread (T10Y3M)?
The difference between the 10-year yield and the 3-month yield.
Viewpoints on this Indicator
The Fed's preferred yield curve measure for assessing recession probability. A negative spread indicates that current monetary policy is overly restrictive relative to long-term expectations.
Importance
HighView Details
Deep Dive
Since the 3-month yield mirrors the current Fed policy rate, an inversion signals that current borrowing costs are too high to sustain long-term economic growth.
Last Fetched: 7/19/2026, 3:16:03 AM