US Employment Center

A comprehensive dashboard for tracking job growth, unemployment status, wage inflation, working hours, and their market impacts.

📢 Next Release Schedule

US Employment Situation

Target Period: Jul

Key Employment Indicators Summary

Nonfarm Payrolls (MoM)

Net Change

-17thousands

Latest: 2026-06-01

Payrolls 3-Month Average

Smoothed Trend

+121thousands

Noise-reduced trend line

Unemployment Rate

Official Rate (U-3)

4.2%

Latest: 2026-06-01

U-6 Unemployment Rate

Broad Unemployment

7.9%

Latest: 2026-06-01

Participation Rate

Labor Force Ratio

61.5%

Latest: 2026-06-01

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)

Wage Inflation

+3.5%

Latest: 2026-06-01

Average Weekly Hours

All Private Sector

34.3hours

Latest: 2026-06-01

Jobless Claims (4-Wk MA)

Weekly Jobless Claims

202k claims

Latest Date: 2026-07-25

JOLTS Job Openings

Employer Labor Demand

7.59M openings

Latest: 2026-05-01

Job Growth (Nonfarm Payrolls)

Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) tracks the monthly net job gains or losses in the US. Instead of focusing only on a single month's volatile number, examining the 3-month moving average reveals the underlying trend of employment health.

Unemployment Status (Unemployment Rate & U-6)

Evaluating standard unemployment (U-3) alongside the broader U-6 rate (which includes underemployed part-time workers) and the participation rate displays the quality of jobs and hidden labor market slack.

Labor Supply (Labor Force Participation Rate)

The participation rate (CIVPART) shows the share of active workforce participants. A rising participation rate represents an expanding labor supply capacity, preventing wage inflation from accelerating too rapidly.

Wage Inflation (Average Hourly Earnings)

Average Hourly Earnings YoY measures wage inflation. If wage growth is significantly stronger than CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation, it raises real purchasing power, but persistent wage pressure keeps CPI high.

Working Hours (Average Weekly Hours & Mfg)

Employers usually cut working hours (overtime) before implementing actual job layoffs. A declining trend in manufacturing weekly hours (AWHMAN) can be an early indicator of cooling industrial demand.

Leading & Demand Indicators (JOLTS Openings & Jobless Claims)

JOLTS Job Openings represents labor demand, while Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) shows the pace of layoffs. A widening gap (high job openings, low jobless claims) represents an extremely tight labor market.

JOLTS Job Openings

Initial Jobless Claims vs 4-Week MA

Indicators to Watch by Release Schedule

⏮️ 1. Before Release (Previews)

Monitor ADP Employment, Initial Jobless Claims, JTS Job Openings, and ISM Employment Index. Released days before the official report, these provide clues for market expectations.

🎯 2. At the Release (Main Results)

Check Nonfarm Payrolls (quantity), Unemployment Rate (slack), and Average Hourly Earnings (wage inflation) simultaneously. Reading details is more critical than just looking at the headline.

⏭️ 3. After Release (Markets)

Observe interest rates (2Y/10Y yields), forex (USD/JPY, Dollar Index), and equity markets (S&P 500, NASDAQ). Reaction patterns shift based on whether the market currently fears inflation or recession.

💡Market Reaction Scenario Examples

STRONGStrong payrolls & rising wages ➔ Delayed rate cuts ➔ Yields rise ➔ Stronger USD, weaker equities (typical in high inflation periods)
WEAKWeak payrolls & slower wages ➔ Rate cut expectations rise ➔ Yields fall ➔ Weaker USD, stronger equities (if recession fears are mild)
The Employment Situation is the most critical monthly indicator, driving markets by revealing both economic health and Fed policy expectations.

Educational Panel for Beginners

1. Do Not Misinterpret the Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is not the percentage of all jobless people. It only counts those who are jobless, willing to work, and actively seeking employment. Those who stop searching are classified outside the labor force. Thus, relying solely on the unemployment rate can be misleading; it must be analyzed alongside the participation rate and the U-6 rate.

2. Do Not Judge by Nonfarm Payrolls Alone

Even if payrolls are growing, you cannot grasp the true strength of the labor market without looking at unemployment, labor participation, hourly earnings, and weekly hours. Tracking moving averages like the 3-month average is useful to smooth out monthly noise.

3. Why Stocks Can Fall Despite Strong Employment

Strong employment is positive for the economy, but if it signals persistent inflation due to wage growth and high consumer demand, the Fed may delay rate cuts. Rising interest rates can weigh on stock prices, though the market reaction depends on the macroeconomic environment.

4. The Relationship Between Bond Prices and Yields

When interest rates (yields) rise, the value of existing fixed-rate bonds decreases, driving bond prices down. Conversely, when yields fall, existing bonds become more valuable, raising their prices. Thus, bond prices and yields always move in opposite directions.

5. ADP Payrolls are Just a Reference

ADP payrolls are private sector estimates released days before the official government report. Due to differences in methodology and sample size, ADP figures often deviate from official Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS). Treat them as a reference, not a perfect predictor.

Disclaimer: The contents of this Econo Scope Employment Center page are intended solely for educational and research purposes and do not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. All data is sourced from public resources (FRED) and is subject to potential transmission delays or revisions.