A comprehensive dashboard for tracking job growth, unemployment status, wage inflation, working hours, and their market impacts.
Target Period: Jul
Nonfarm Payrolls (MoM)
Latest: 2026-06-01
Payrolls 3-Month Average
Noise-reduced trend line
Unemployment Rate
Latest: 2026-06-01
U-6 Unemployment Rate
Latest: 2026-06-01
Participation Rate
Latest: 2026-06-01
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
Latest: 2026-06-01
Average Weekly Hours
Latest: 2026-06-01
Jobless Claims (4-Wk MA)
Latest Date: 2026-07-25
JOLTS Job Openings
Latest: 2026-05-01
Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) tracks the monthly net job gains or losses in the US. Instead of focusing only on a single month's volatile number, examining the 3-month moving average reveals the underlying trend of employment health.
Evaluating standard unemployment (U-3) alongside the broader U-6 rate (which includes underemployed part-time workers) and the participation rate displays the quality of jobs and hidden labor market slack.
The participation rate (CIVPART) shows the share of active workforce participants. A rising participation rate represents an expanding labor supply capacity, preventing wage inflation from accelerating too rapidly.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY measures wage inflation. If wage growth is significantly stronger than CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation, it raises real purchasing power, but persistent wage pressure keeps CPI high.
Employers usually cut working hours (overtime) before implementing actual job layoffs. A declining trend in manufacturing weekly hours (AWHMAN) can be an early indicator of cooling industrial demand.
JOLTS Job Openings represents labor demand, while Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) shows the pace of layoffs. A widening gap (high job openings, low jobless claims) represents an extremely tight labor market.
Monitor ADP Employment, Initial Jobless Claims, JTS Job Openings, and ISM Employment Index. Released days before the official report, these provide clues for market expectations.
Check Nonfarm Payrolls (quantity), Unemployment Rate (slack), and Average Hourly Earnings (wage inflation) simultaneously. Reading details is more critical than just looking at the headline.
Observe interest rates (2Y/10Y yields), forex (USD/JPY, Dollar Index), and equity markets (S&P 500, NASDAQ). Reaction patterns shift based on whether the market currently fears inflation or recession.
The unemployment rate is not the percentage of all jobless people. It only counts those who are jobless, willing to work, and actively seeking employment. Those who stop searching are classified outside the labor force. Thus, relying solely on the unemployment rate can be misleading; it must be analyzed alongside the participation rate and the U-6 rate.
Even if payrolls are growing, you cannot grasp the true strength of the labor market without looking at unemployment, labor participation, hourly earnings, and weekly hours. Tracking moving averages like the 3-month average is useful to smooth out monthly noise.
Strong employment is positive for the economy, but if it signals persistent inflation due to wage growth and high consumer demand, the Fed may delay rate cuts. Rising interest rates can weigh on stock prices, though the market reaction depends on the macroeconomic environment.
When interest rates (yields) rise, the value of existing fixed-rate bonds decreases, driving bond prices down. Conversely, when yields fall, existing bonds become more valuable, raising their prices. Thus, bond prices and yields always move in opposite directions.
ADP payrolls are private sector estimates released days before the official government report. Due to differences in methodology and sample size, ADP figures often deviate from official Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS). Treat them as a reference, not a perfect predictor.
Disclaimer: The contents of this Econo Scope Employment Center page are intended solely for educational and research purposes and do not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. All data is sourced from public resources (FRED) and is subject to potential transmission delays or revisions.