EconoScope

What is Real GDP Growth (A191RL1Q225SBEA)? Measures the annualized quarterly change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the US. Viewpoints on this Indicator While the most comprehensive economic measure, it lags significantly due to quarterly reporting. Markets usually price in growth through monthly data (e.g. payrolls, retail sales) before GDP is released.

What is Japan Real GDP Growth Rate (JPNRGDPQDSMEI)?(JPNRGDPQDSMEI)? Measures the growth rate of Japan's economic output adjusted for inflation. It is released quarterly and reflects the overall health of the Japanese economy.

What is Average Weekly Hours (AWHAETP)? Average Weekly Hours measures the average number of hours worked per week by employees in the US private non-farm sector. Adjustments in working hours serve as a leading indicator for layoffs and hiring. Viewpoints on this Indicator Even a 0.1-hour (6-minute) shift is significant as it reflects corporate adjustments to labor demand. Declines signal potential downturns, while increases suggest upcoming job growth.

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What is Average Hourly Earnings (CES0500000003)? Average Hourly Earnings tracks the hourly wage paid to employees in the US private non-farm sector. It serves as an early indicator of wage-push inflation. Viewpoints on this Indicator Pay close attention to month-over-month (MoM) and year-over-year (YoY) growth percentages. High wage growth supports consumer spending but increases business costs, keeping the Consumer Price Index (CPI) high and preventing the Fed from cutting rates.

What is the Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)? The Labor Force Participation Rate measures the proportion of the working-age population (16 and older) in the US that is either employed or actively looking for work. It tracks the overall size of the active workforce supply. Viewpoints on this Indicator When evaluated alongside the Unemployment Rate, it reveals the true health of the labor market. A falling unemployment rate is only healthy if the participation rate is steady or rising; otherwise, it may suggest workers are giving up and exiting the market.

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What is Euro Area Unemployment Rate (LRHUTTTTEUR19S)?(LRHUTTTTEUR19S)? Measures the percentage of the labor force in the Eurozone that is jobless and actively seeking employment, published monthly.

What is Japan Unemployment Rate (LRUNTTTTJPM156S)? The percentage of the Japanese labor force that is jobless and actively seeking work. Published monthly by the government.

What is Non-Farm Payrolls (PAYEMS)? Non-Farm Payrolls measures the monthly change in the number of employed people in the US, excluding the agricultural sector. Released on the first Friday of every month, it is one of the most closely watched economic indicators by investors worldwide. Viewpoints on this Indicator The net change from the previous month and how it compares to market expectations are critical. It should be analyzed in conjunction with the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. Strong job growth tends to lead to higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, while weak growth often leads to lower rates and a weaker dollar.

What is the U-6 Unemployment Rate (U6RATE)? The U-6 Unemployment Rate is a broader measure of unemployment. In addition to standard unemployment, it includes part-time workers who prefer full-time work (underemployed) and discouraged job seekers who have stopped actively searching. Viewpoints on this Indicator Focus on the spread (gap) between the standard Unemployment Rate and the U-6 rate. A widening gap indicates an increase in underemployed or discouraged workers, suggesting the labor market is weaker than the official rate implies.

What is the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE)? The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the labor force that is currently jobless and actively seeking employment in the US. It represents a widely referenced reflection of overall labor market health. Viewpoints on this Indicator The direction (up or down) of the unemployment rate is highly significant. It must be evaluated alongside the Labor Force Participation Rate. The Fed monitors it closely to decide on interest rate hikes or cuts.

What is China Consumer Price Index (CHNCPIALLMINMEI)? Measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services in China, the world's second-largest economy, published monthly.

What is Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CP0000EZ19M086NEST)? Measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households in the Eurozone. Published monthly.

What is Japan Consumer Price Index (JPNCPALTT01IXOBM)?(JPNCPALTT01IXOBM)? Measures the monthly changes in prices for goods and services purchased by Japanese households. A primary gauge of inflation.

What is Durable Goods Orders (DGORDER)? Measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for products designed to last at least three years (e.g. machinery, cars, computers). Viewpoints on this Indicator A key leading indicator for business investment. High orders suggest upcoming factory activity and sustained economic growth.

What is the Industrial Production Index (INDPRO)? It measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors in the US. Released monthly, it tracks factory activity levels. Viewpoints on this Indicator Directly reflects manufacturing health. However, since the US is highly service-oriented, do not judge the whole economy on this alone. Compare it with Japan, China, and EU production for a global view.

What is Japan Industrial Production Index (JPNPROINDNUMSMEI)?(JPNPROINDNUMSMEI)? Tracks the output of Japanese mining and manufacturing sectors monthly, serving as a coincident indicator for the domestic business cycle.

What is the 10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10)? The market yield on outstanding 10-year US Treasury bonds, serving as the benchmark for global long-term interest rates. Viewpoints on this Indicator Reflects long-term inflation expectations, economic growth potential, and bond supply/demand. Influences consumer loans and mortgage rates globally.

What is the 2-Year Treasury Yield (DGS2)? The market yield on outstanding 2-year US Treasury bonds, reflecting short-to-medium-term interest rates. Viewpoints on this Indicator Highly sensitive to the Fed's near-term policy expectations. Rises when rate hikes are anticipated, and falls with rate cuts. Strongly impacts USD/JPY and growth stocks.

What is Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield (IRLTLT01JPM156N)? The yield on Japanese government bonds with a maturity of 10 years, representing the benchmark for long-term interest rates in Japan.

What is the 10-Year to 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread (T10Y2Y)? The difference between the 10-year and 2-year treasury yields, tracking yield curve steepness. Viewpoints on this Indicator Usually positive, but when it drops below zero (yield inversion), it signals highly reliable recession risks historically seen prior to downturns.

What is the 10-Year to 3-Month Treasury Spread (T10Y3M)? The difference between the 10-year yield and the 3-month yield. Viewpoints on this Indicator The Fed's preferred yield curve measure for assessing recession probability. A negative spread indicates that current monetary policy is overly restrictive relative to long-term expectations.

What is the Fed Target Range Upper Limit (DFEDTARU)? The upper boundary of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate, determined at FOMC meetings. Viewpoints on this Indicator A direct, explicit signal of the Fed's monetary policy stance. Rises during tightening (rate hikes) and falls during easing (rate cuts).

What is the Effective Federal Funds Rate (DFF)? The daily volume-weighted average rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight in the US. Viewpoints on this Indicator The actual, historical benchmark interest rate of the Federal Reserve. It anchors all borrowing costs and drives dollar liquidity globally.

What is European Central Bank Total Assets (ECBASSETW)?(ECBASSETW)? The balance sheet scale of the European Central Bank (ECB), reflecting its quantitative easing (QE) and asset purchases.

What is ECB Deposit Facility Rate (ECBDFR)? The interest rate set by the European Central Bank (ECB) on overnight deposits from commercial banks. Serves as the key policy rate.

What is BOJ Policy Rate (MUTCALM)?(MUTCALM)? The policy interest rate set by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). It represents the historical discount rate used to guide monetary policy.

What is Bank of Japan Total Assets (JPNASSETS)? The total assets held by the Bank of Japan, reflecting the scale of its quantitative easing (QE) program and government bond purchases.

What are Fed Total Assets (WALCL)? The total size of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, tracking assets like government securities purchased to inject liquidity. Viewpoints on this Indicator Represents dollar liquidity. Balance sheet expansion (quantitative easing: QE) fuels stock gains, while contraction (quantitative tightening: QT) drains market liquidity, posing a headwind for assets.

What is the USD/JPY Exchange Rate (DEXJPUS)? The exchange rate of US Dollars to Japanese Yen, showing how many Yen buy one Dollar. Viewpoints on this Indicator Highly correlated with the US-Japan interest rate differential. A widening rate gap (higher US yields relative to Japan) drives funds out of Yen and into USD, causing Yen depreciation.

What is the Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS)? A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a broad basket of major foreign currencies. Viewpoints on this Indicator Used to monitor the overall strength of the U.S. dollar in global markets. Driven heavily by interest rate differentials between the US and other major economies.

A stock market index that measures the stock performance of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States.

A broad-based market capitalization-weighted index of all the stocks traded on the Nasdaq stock market, highly weighted in technology.

A major stock market index for Japan, representing the average price of 225 selected blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

What is the S&P 500 Index (SP500)? The leading stock index representing 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the US, acting as a barometer for global equities. Viewpoints on this Indicator Reflects equity market health. Rises in low-interest-rate, growing economies. Serves as the final destination for observing how macro factors (inflation, jobs) influence asset values.

What is the VIX Index (VIXCLS)? The CBOE Volatility Index, calculating implied market volatility based on S&P 500 options options pricing. Commonly called the 'Fear Index'. Viewpoints on this Indicator Tracks market panic. Stays below 20 in stable markets, but spikes above 30 or 40 during sudden selloffs, signaling investor fear.