Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy
PCELatest Value
Date: 2026-05-01
Data Count
809recordsData from FRED source
Basic Info
Country: US
Frequency: Monthly
Source: FRED
Next Release
07/30 21:30 JSTPeriod: Jun
Trend Chart (Line)
Historical Trend Data
| Date | Value (Index) | MoM (Change) | YoY (Change) | 3-Month MA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 130.08 | +0.35% | +3.41% | 129.68 |
| 2026-04-01 | 129.63 | +0.24% | +3.29% | 129.3 |
| 2026-03-01 | 129.32 | +0.30% | +3.24% | 128.9 |
| 2026-02-01 | 128.94 | +0.40% | +3.03% | 128.42 |
| 2026-01-01 | 128.43 | +0.43% | +3.09% | 127.93 |
| 2025-12-01 | 127.89 | +0.33% | +2.97% | 127.53 |
| 2025-11-01 | 127.47 | +0.18% | +2.83% | 127.22 |
| 2025-10-01 | 127.24 | +0.23% | +2.75% | 126.97 |
| 2025-09-01 | 126.95 | +0.19% | +2.83% | 126.7 |
| 2025-08-01 | 126.71 | +0.22% | +2.91% | 126.42 |
About Indicator
Explanation
What is the PCE Price Index?
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by US consumers. It serves as the Fed's primary gauge for its 2% inflation target.
Viewpoints on this Indicator
Monitor the 'Core PCE Price Index' (excluding food and energy). It covers a broader scope of expenditures than the CPI and tends to reflect a milder, more conservative inflation rate due to its calculation methods.
Importance
HighView Details
Deep Dive
While the CPI is more widely recognized, the Fed relies on PCE for policy targets. The main difference lies in tracking consumer substitution behavior—PCE adjusts when consumers buy cheaper alternatives as prices rise, making it a more realistic measure of consumption costs.
Additionally, PCE accounts for expenses paid by employers (like healthcare premiums) and government programs, providing a broader view of consumer outlays.
If Core PCE remains high above 2%, the Fed will hesitate to cut interest rates, sustaining a strong dollar environment. A steady decline toward 2% will fuel rate-cut expectations, lowering yields and supporting equity markets.
Key Checkpoints in Data
Key Checkpoints
- How close Core PCE YoY is to the Fed's 2% target.
- If the MoM growth is below the 0.17% monthly pace required to hit the target.
- Whether the gap with the earlier CPI has widened.
- Whether service-sector costs or goods prices are driving inflation.
- If the trend matches consumer inflation expectations.
Connection with Associated Indicators
Why Look at Associated Indicators Together
| Associated Indicator | Why to Look Together |
|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | To forecast the PCE outcome using CPI data and analyze any divergence between the two indices. |
| Retail Sales | To check if household spending levels align with the current pace of price increases. |
One-Line Summary for Beginners
PCE is the Fed's target index for tracking its 2% inflation goal. Declines in PCE open the door for rate cuts, providing a favorable backdrop for stock markets.
Last Fetched: 6/28/2026, 11:09:46 AM
Flow of Analysis: US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE)
🔍1. Before (Leading)
Check these leading indicators a few days before to gauge expectations.
📊2. During (Core Values)
Check the headline and core figures at the moment of release.
⚡3. After (Market Reactions)
Track reactions in yields, currencies, and major stock indexes.